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Key data inputs and modelling assumptions

Here are the descriptions of the data collected and the assumption made to be able to model the Swedish vehicle stock.

 Variable Details of data and assumptions used
Vehicle sales Historical data taken from Statistics Sweden (SCB)

Assume constant sales from the last year of history

Constant sales leads to, the size of the vehicle fleet rising in all scenarios in the short term before plateauing, reaching around 5.4 million passenger cars by 2050

Efficiency of new vehicles Historical data taken from the ICCT Pocketbook of European vehicle market statistics

This is an outcome of the vehicle stock model, based on assumptions about the vehicle powertrain and the energy efficient technologies that are installed in the vehicle. See below for detail on deployment of fuel efficient technologies

We assume that the real-world driving efficiencies are 42% lower than the reported test cycle performance and that this gap persists over the projection period. This is based on a recent report by the ICCT. New vehicle efficiency is reported on the test-cycle basis, all other calculations are based on the real-world performance.

Mileage by age cohort Based on observed annual mileage data from the Swedish transport authority (Transportstyrelsen), we assume that average annual mileage falls gradually over the lifetime of the vehicle and we assume that the mileage for diesel cars is around 50% higher than that for petrol cars and EVs.
Vehicle survival rates Survival rate assumptions are based on observed data on changes in stock by age of vehicle from Swedish transport authority (Transportstyrelsen)
Fuel prices Historical data for fuel prices is taken from the European Commission’s Oil Bulletin

For the central scenarios, we assume oil prices grow in line with the IEA’s 2016 World Energy Outlook Current Policies Scenario (and a constant percentage mark-up is applied to derive the petrol and diesel fuel price)

Fossil fuel price sensitivities were also tested

Electricity prices These are based on the energy mix from the Swedish energy agency’s scenarios

The electricity price for EV users is assumed to be the same as that paid by households at 25-30 cents/KWh over the period to 2050 (in 2014 prices)

Rest of world In each scenario, we assume that low-carbon transport policy in the rest of Europe is consistent with that in Sweden

Rest of world assumptions on low carbon transport policy affect the global oil price and are tested through sensitivity analysis

Value chains In all scenarios, we assume that Sweden captures a consistent share of the vehicle value chain for conventional ICEs. For the central scenarios, we assume that, for EVs, battery modules and battery packs are assembled in Sweden but that the battery cells are manufactured in Asia.
Trade in motor vehicles We assume the same volume of vehicle imports and exports in each scenario. The price of vehicle imports and vehicle exports changes in line with the change in domestic vehicle prices (reflecting that transport policy in Sweden is assumed to be consistent with that in the rest of the EU).
Biofuel blending Historical blending rates come from the Swedish energy agency.